Amaranth reports precipitous losses
September 19, 2006
 
One of the nation's largest hedge funds reported massive losses to investors yesterday, rekindling worries that the unregulated hedge fund industry could cause financial chaos should it topple. Amaranth Advisors, based in Greenwich, Conn. told its investors that it had lost more than $3 billion in the recent downturn in natural gas, according to published reports.

It made an estimated $1 billion on rising energy prices last year.

Amaranth's performance reflects the volatility of hedge funds: Just last week, chief operating officer at Amaranth, Charles H. Winkler, reported 25% increases for the year, a New York Times report said.
Insiders have told reporters that the losses might be considerably larger than the firm estimated.

The lesson. When we exercised the human greed and we will get the same result. Traderpick's number one important strategy is managing risk. Traders should apply their strategy based on their risk tolerance. We at Traderpick enforce the rule of TSMP - Timing, Selection, Management and Patience.

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Apr. 26, 2006

From Traderpick support.
Subject: Alert 4.26.06 6:49 am
Date: Wed, 26 APR 2006 06:49:35 -0700

SMOOTHY.
Hold the purchase of RFMD. It gaps up too much in the early sessions.
For those bought at the open you might take profit.

Trader Pick.


From client Tim.
Sent: Wednesday, April 26, 2006 11:52 PM
Subject: RE: Alert 4.26.06 6:49 am

Andy,

how can I follow this alert when you tell us to buy at open but 15 or 20 minutes later, you said not to buy? I happen not to buy this time because been killed by the market lately. Any tip for future transaction on these
type of alerts?

another question: do you recommend putting trailing stop limit? I did it for all my stocks and b/c of big swing, I have been taken out of those positions such as RBAK, AMD, etc.

thanks.
Tim


From Traderpick support for the reply.

Tim,

In a very rare case, this thing happen. RFMD gap up so much at the opening and continue rally. If you initiate position at the open, when you received my alert, your positions should be profitable.

In this case you have 3 choices:

1. Close positions and take the profit.
2. Put a stop loss at the break even point.
3. Initiate the trailing stop.

No matter what you do, RFMD positions will be profitable. Before I send alert, I have check all situation and conditions and all possible steps that you can take when you get the alert. In this case at least you should be making .20 cents profit with this positions.

Protective stop will be good, but I would not suggest you to put a protective stop if it is not recommended.
Contrary to what others saying about protective stop, it is a very tricky strategy to be use.

1. If you put a protective stop too early, you will get chop in both directions due to the swing of price during intraday.
2. You have to know and learn the "Average true range" for that particular stocks to determine what stop will be good enough so your positions will not be taken out during intraday movement.

In SMOOTHY strategy, all positions have been planned and well thought of. It did not require a protective stop unless it is noted in the alert. The protective stop will be mention in the alert with plenty of time for you to apply. The only time that you apply a protective stop is when you need to close the positions.

Ex: You need to close ABC position at 24, but you see the current price is 24.50, then you have 3 choices:
1. You can have a trailing stop for .50.
2. You can put a stop loss at 24.
3. Take profit immediately.

Hope it helps.

Andy W. Gouw.

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Dec. 31, 2005

QPIX Managed Fund performance for 2005

As 2005 came to an end, our economy was expanding. Our corporate profits were growing. However, concern still remained about oil prices, inflation, and interest rates.

Our Managed Fund QPIX performed very well.

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